Moldova: Russia's Next Target? | STRATFOR
Moldova: Russia's Next Target?
August 9, 2010 | 2151 GMT
Moldova: Russia's Next Target?
VLADIMIR RODIONOV/AFP/Getty Images
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev (L) and acting Moldovan President Mihai Ghimpu in Chisinau on Oct. 9, 2009
Summary
The head of one of the parties in Moldova’s pro-European ruling coalition said Aug. 9 that the coalition “de facto no longer exists.” This is just the latest in a series of events indicating rifts within the ruling Moldovan coalition — rifts that Russia could use as a way to increase its influence in Chisinau.
Analysis
The leader of the Democratic Party — one of four parties in Moldova’s ruling Alliance for European Integration (AEI) — said Aug. 9 that the ruling coalition “de facto no longer exists.” Democratic Party chief Marian Lupu said that although the coalition officially has held together, he was “ashamed” to belong to the same coalition as Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat and acting President Mihai Ghimpu, and that he would stand as a candidate in the country’s upcoming presidential elections.
Lupu’s statements are only the latest sign of rifts within Moldova’s ruling coalition of pro-European parties. Russia sees these rifts as an opportunity to assess just how much effort — as well as risk — it is willing to take in increasing its influence in Chisinau at the pro-European elements’ expense.
According to STRATFOR sources in Moscow, Moldova could be the next former Soviet country where Russia will target pro-European political elements. This follows a key development in May, when Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and his newly elected pro-Russian counterpart in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, issued a joint declaration that their countries would work together to address the ongoing dispute over the breakaway province of Transdniestria. There are two ways that Russia — with Ukraine’s help — could address the Moldovan issue in the short term. One is to attempt to bring Transdniestria under control along with the rest of Moldova, and the other is to maintain hegemony over just Transdniestria and settle for a split country, without controlling Moldova proper.
Moldova: Russia's Next Target?
Circumstances in Moldova could make the country vulnerable to Russia’s designs. The government is weak and split among the AEI member parties and faces constant challenges from the pro-Russian Communists, who are now in the opposition. The pro-European Ghimpu has made some extremely controversial moves like issuing a decree to mark June 28 as “Soviet Occupation Day” (which has since been overturned by the country’s Constitutional Court). This not only angered Transdniestria and caused Russia to retaliate by targeting the country’s wine exports, but polarized the pragmatic pro-European elements within Moldova as well, as evidenced by Lupu’s recent statements. This has caused the pro-European bloc’s popularity to fall and the Communists to make a comeback in the polls, and sets the stage for a referendum scheduled for September that could see a new set of general elections, likely in November. The Communists could then retake power from the fragile AEI.
Russia is not the only outside power vying for influence in Moldova; another more traditional suitor is Romania, which has cultural and ethnic ties to the country. Romania, seeing the course of recent events in Ukraine, has been pursuing Moldova aggressively, thinking it could be the next former Soviet state to fall to Moscow. Romanian President Traian Basescu recently stated that the two Romanian-speaking territories should be reunited, and that, should Ukraine make a move for Transdniestria or Moldova, Romania would use the Romanian populations in western Ukraine — mainly Bucovina — to challenge Kiev. Ukraine and Russia have taken Basescu’s comments quite seriously. Basescu’s comments were also controversial within Moldova, where many citizens are against being split between Ukraine and Romania and instead want Moldova to remain its own independent country.
The Transdniestria issue is also a key topic that Germany specifically suggested Berlin and Moscow work on as they seek to strengthen their ties via the Russia-EU Security Council. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Transdniestria should be a priority for Russian-EU talks, and the issue was at the top of the agenda for Merkel’s meeting with Medvedev in June. Germany drafted a proposal for negotiations on the issue, but this included Russia removing its troops from Transdniestria — something Moscow has said it would not do. As Russia and Germany increase cooperation in the economic and energy sectors, the Transdniestria issue could slow this warming of relations. Russia expanding its influence in Ukraine is one thing, but Moldova may be a little too far into Europe for even Russia-friendly Germany to be comfortable with. Russia’s overtures in Moldova therefore could ripple across the rest of Europe, depending on how far Moscow decides to go to increase its influence in Chisinau.
